**What is value betting ?**

To make a long term profit in sports betting it is not enough to simply pick the most likely result. We must evaluate whether the odds on offer are higher than we think they should be and therefore contain positive value.

Betting on negative value selections over the long term is a sure way to lose money (unless you are laying them) because you are not being paid enough for the risk you are taking.

When the betting markets (bookmakers, exchanges) offer odds on a game, these odds are estimating the probability or chance that each outcome of the event will happen.

Here is an example

A Liverpool win is priced at 1.75. The betting markets therefore thinks that the chance of Liverpool winning is 57% (calculated by dividing 1 by 1.75).If we think the chance of Liverpool to win is higher, say 70%, then we would say this is a positive value bet because the corresponding odds are 1.43 (calculated by dividing 1 by 70% or 0.70). The betting markets are offering better odds than we think should be available and therefore it contains positive value.

The amount of value in this bet is calculated as follows.

Betting market odds divided by Bettor’s calculated odds minus 1 which is 1.75/1.43-1 = 22.3% Value

If we think the chance of Liverpool to win is lower, say 45%, then we would say this is a negative value bet because the corresponding odds are 2.22 (calculated by dividing 1 by 45% or 0.45). The bookmaker is offering worse odds than we think he should and therefore it contains negative value and be avoided.

The amount of value in this bet is calculated as follows. The lower the % the less value it has.

Bookmaker’s odds divided by Bettor’s calculated odds minus 1 which is 1.75/2.22-1 = -21.1% Value

Of course the trick is to calculate the true odds as accurately as possible, which is subjective. There are many ways to do this.

At valuesportsbetting, we think that the analysis of participating teams' recent ability, and how they perform against certain types of opposition is a useful method.

Powered by